That is even crazier in the playoffs, since games can’t end in a tie. You’re simply giving up too much edge by crossing over a dead range that will only include a maximum of one key number. Recreational bettors make this mistake far too often. On a related note, don’t even consider teasing teams like the Colts (-3.5) this week. If you consider a few other factors, you can potentially improve that percentage. Those results capture the closing lines on all teams in those specific spread ranges. That gives us a total of 592-189 or 75.8 percent, which easily clears the 72.4 hurdle rate. And favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have historically covered at a slightly higher clip of 76.8 percent (218-66). NFL regular-season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 covered a 6-point teaser 75.2 percent of the time (374-123). The story changes if we filter for all teasers that would’ve captured both the 3 and 7. That obviously doesn’t clear the hurdle rate of 72.4. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular season spreads since 2003 covered just 68.7 percent (6,638-3,026) of the time if teased six points, over a sample set containing just under 10,000 data points. In order to break even on a 6-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4 percent chance of covering after being teased. Check out more of the Best Sportsbook Promo Codes.
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